Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Box office up sharply in 2012

'The Vow'Thanks in part to seven more wide releases in the first two months of the year, domestic box office is up a healthy 21% over 2011. The $1.57 billion total is good news at a time when bizzers are concerned about changing audience behavior. But the upturn still wasn't enough to outdo record-breaking results in early 2009 and 2010. Moreover, only one film this year has grossed more than $100 million. So far, it's the volume of releases responsible for the uptick rather than the average gross per film. Sony's "The Vow" is the only title with a domestic cume of more than $100 million, though Universal's "Safe House" should reach that milestone this week. By this time in 2010, Stateside totals reached $1.59 billion, fueled mainly by "Avatar's" $354 million in the first two months. In 2009, the B.O. raked in $1.6 billion through the last weekend in February with help from three $100 million-plus grossers. B.O. totals are calculated starting the first Monday in January. But some lower-budgeted films have provided tidy payoffs, including Fox's "Chronicle," with a Stateside cume of $58 million, and Paramount's "The Devil Inside," with just north of $53 million domestically. To date, 26 films have bowed nationwide, compared to 19 in 2011. Studios are no longer wholly responsible for filling the commercial pipeline: Relativity Media, CBS Films and the market's newest player, Open Road Films, are starting to alleviate some of that pressure. In fact, the weekend of Jan. 27 -- topped by Open Road's first domestic win for "The Grey" -- lacked a single studio wide release. Last weekend, Universal's "Wanderlust" was the lone studio entry of four nationwide openers. Then there's 3D. The format saw a surprising resurgence earlier this year when "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island" scored 74% of its opening from 3D. That's a significant improvement on last year's "Cars 2," which earned 40% from 3D, and "Puss in Boots," at 51%. Sony's recent 3D pic pair, "Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance" and "Underworld Awakening," also did better in the format than most 2011 fanboy offerings, with 65% and 74%, respectively. Lately, the biggest hurdle for movie marketers has been attracting young male auds. But Fox's "Chronicle" shows that it's still possible: The supernatural teen thriller overperformed with male teens. But while the success of "Chronicle" hints at a promising comeback for the flagging demo, it's still too soon to tell whether bizzers can bank on young men to turn out at previous levels come tentpole season. Either way, plenty of highly anticipated blockbusters should give 2012 B.O. a fighting chance against last year's benchmark summer. On paper at least, those titles appear to be strong enough to make a run at 2009's record year. In less than a month, Lionsgate launches young adult-targeted "The Hunger Games," which should give first-quarter box office a final shot of adrenalin. But first, Disney has its fingers crossed for "John Carter," which bows next weekend. Entries in five billion-dollar global franchises fill the summer sked, one more than last summer: "The Avengers," "The Amazing Spider-Man," "The Dark Knight Rises" and a pair of toons, "Madagascar 3" and "Ice Age: Continental Drift." That's added to Sony's "Men in Black 3" and Universal's "The Bourne Legacy." Those franchises have each grossed more than $800 million worldwide. U is kickstarting the summer sesh overseas with "Battleship," which bows the weekend of April 13, more than a month before the U.S. Contact Andrew Stewart at andrew.stewart@variety.com

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